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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -76.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-76.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$36.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±42.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$94.9k
Last 30 days −$1,965 · $1.18M volume · 334 trades · since Jan 18, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$27.1k
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$108.3k
Closed-position win rate
75%
84 closed
Wallet age · markets
279d
105 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -76.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev | LOW SELL Alcaraz @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 98.4¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
 Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $10.3k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x40edcb…