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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.2 wins, so it did -7.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-7.5 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.2
Flagged volume
$735.4k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2,530
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.65M volume · 261 trades · since May 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$24.8k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
64%
136 closed
Wallet age · markets
175d
107 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | -7.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 61¢ | $44.8k | called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 80¢ | $71.2k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $71.8k | called |
 Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $81.9k | excluded |
 Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $25.3k | excluded |
 Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $213.3k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
 Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $89.7k | excluded |
 Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $37.5k | excluded |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $99.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x32bd1a…