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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.7 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$120.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$32.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $622.8k volume · 308 trades · since Jul 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$14.5k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$47.4k
Closed-position win rate
50%
113 closed
Wallet age · markets
469d
81 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.3¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $27.1k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 86¢ | $30.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x280393…