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Casablanca10

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -31.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-31.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$263.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$219.7k
Last 30 days +$1 · $5.63M volume · 3,592 trades · since Nov 21, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$235.8k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$14.1k
Closed-position win rate
78%
118 closed
Wallet age · markets
702d
106 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy100.3-31.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW SELL No @ 96¢ $11.8k4% 189d agomissed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $11.0k90% 189d agocalled
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $16.0k81% 199d agomissed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ $10.1k50% 204d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $29.0k
2.5× usual
0% 206d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 83¢ $12.6k17% 212d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 74¢ $11.1k26% 212d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $11.2k75% 212d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 93¢ $10.8k7% 213d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $16.2k92% 214d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $14.4k72% 214d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 20¢ $13.3k80% 218d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 59¢ $13.9k59% 222d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 57¢ $16.6k43% 225d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 54¢ $11.6k46% 226d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢ $11.8k2% 227d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 77¢ $10.0k23% 227d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 74¢ $21.9k74% 231d agocalled
US recession in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 69¢ $10.1k31% 487d agomissed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?missed
SELL No @ 96¢$11.8k
LOW Casablanca10 · 189d ago
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?called
BUY No @ 90¢$11.0k
LOW Casablanca10 · 189d ago
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?missed
BUY Yes @ 81¢$16.0k
LOW Casablanca10 · 199d ago
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?missed
BUY Yes @ 50¢$10.1k
LOW Casablanca10 · 204d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$29.0k
LOW Casablanca10 · 206d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?missed
SELL No @ 83¢$12.6k
LOW Casablanca10 · 212d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?called
SELL No @ 74¢$11.1k
LOW Casablanca10 · 212d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?missed
BUY No @ 75¢$11.2k
LOW Casablanca10 · 212d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?missed
SELL No @ 93¢$10.8k
LOW Casablanca10 · 213d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?called
BUY No @ 92¢$16.2k
LOW Casablanca10 · 214d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?called
BUY No @ 72¢$14.4k
LOW Casablanca10 · 214d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?called
SELL No @ 20¢$13.3k
LOW Casablanca10 · 218d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?called
BUY No @ 59¢$13.9k
LOW Casablanca10 · 222d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?missed
SELL No @ 57¢$16.6k
LOW Casablanca10 · 225d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?missed
SELL No @ 54¢$11.6k
LOW Casablanca10 · 226d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 97.9¢$11.8k
LOW Casablanca10 · 227d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?missed
SELL No @ 77¢$10.0k
LOW Casablanca10 · 227d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?called
BUY No @ 74¢$21.9k
LOW Casablanca10 · 231d ago
US recession in 2025?missed
SELL No @ 69¢$10.1k
LOW Casablanca10 · 487d ago

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