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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -34.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-34.3 pts
Called / graded
1/8
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$1.57M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$91k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 96¢) and the edge is -39.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 12% · n=2
20–40¢
0% vs 38% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 51% · n=3
60–80¢
0% vs 64% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 96% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2.85M
Last 30 days +$0 · $58.12M volume · 42,652 trades · since May 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$7.75M
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$40.1k
Closed-position win rate
66%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
164d
714 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 1 | 3.7 | -34.3 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x113636…