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+$712No · avg 92.1¢ → 96¢ · $17.7k+$1,931No · avg 78¢ → 96¢ · $10.3k+$565No · avg 90¢ → 96.2¢ · $8,545+$867No · avg 71¢ → 93¢ · $3,720−$108No · avg 84¢ → 74¢ · $761+$45No · avg 89¢ → 97.3¢ · $526
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +31.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+31.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$47.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3,383
Last 30 days +$105 · $281.6k volume · 96 trades · since Nov 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$15.0k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$12.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
23 closed
Wallet age · markets
346d
31 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +31.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 69¢ | $10.2k | called |
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