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What this means. A wallet put $11.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 23% chance. It lost. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.5k
BUY No @ 23¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideProven walletEconomy
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took No (buy) for $11.5k at an average 23¢. At that price the market implied a 23% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $11.5k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 23¢ means
23%chance the market gave
+335American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 23¢
- Implied odds
- 23.0%
- Size
- $11.5k
- Placed
- Jul 28, 15:46 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 28, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0xfb5a721c…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -23 ptsNo price · entry 23¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |