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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -56.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-56.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$74.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$34.4k
Last 30 days −$2,183 · $753.2k volume · 485 trades · since Sep 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$22.0k
Open P&L · 17 positions
−$12.2k
Closed-position win rate
47%
260 closed
Wallet age · markets
412d
247 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -56.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $19.5k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x98c666…