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What this means. A wallet put $40.4k on No, at a price that gave it a 27% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-2.9 pts over 22 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$40.4k
BUY No @ 27¢ · 150,000 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Economy
What happened
Wallet TheReturnOfDarthMaul took No (buy) for $40.4k at an average 27¢. At that price the market implied a 27% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $40.4k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 27¢ means
27%chance the market gave
+271American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 27¢
- Implied odds
- 26.9%
- Size
- $40.4k
- Placed
- Jul 27, 16:36 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 28, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- TheReturnOfDarthMaul
- Tx
- 0xdd4a8f15…
This wallet's graded record
15/22-2.9 pts
expected 15.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -27 ptsNo price · entry 27¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |