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What this means. A wallet put $15.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 81% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-11.5 pts over 25 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.5k
BUY No @ 81¢ · 19,084 shares
Size ≥ $10kOther
What happened
Wallet 0x16bb…8492 took No (buy) for $15.5k at an average 81¢. At that price the market implied a 81% chance for that side. Pending: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.5k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 81¢ means
81%chance the market gave
−426American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 81¢
- Implied odds
- 81.0%
- Size
- $15.5k
- Placed
- Oct 22, 18:46 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 23, 16:00 EDT
- Result
- not settled yet
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x16bb…8492
- Tx
- 0xd307a184…
This wallet's graded record
10/25-11.5 pts
expected 12.9 from price
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Price since this bet
Since entry +16.8 ptsNo price · entry 81¢ · now 97.8¢
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $20.6k | pending |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $13.3k | pending |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | LOW Yes UP +10.0 pts | $356.2k 24h vol |
pending |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | LOW Yes UP +10.5 pts | $167.4k 24h vol |
pending |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $18.4k | pending |