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What this means. A wallet put $16.3k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 17% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.3k
SELL Yes @ 83¢ · 19,614 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet 0x8795…7544 took Yes (sell) for $16.3k at an average 83¢. At that price the market implied a 17% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $16.3k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 83¢
- Implied odds
- 16.7%
- Size
- $16.3k
- Placed
- Sep 28, 16:10 EDT
- Market close
- Nov 04, 07:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x8795…7544
- Tx
- 0xcfa1f2a3…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+5.0 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $33.3k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $163.4k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $63.6k | excluded |