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What this means. A wallet put $81.0k on not Over, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no graded bets yet. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$81.0k
SELL Over @ 99.9¢ · 81,039 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Fresh walletSports
What happened
Wallet thetesterguy took Over (sell) for $81.0k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Over. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $81.0k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $81.0k
- Placed
- Oct 23, 10:43 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 23, 09:30 EDT
- Result
- Over
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- thetesterguy
- Tx
- 0xc4f51b3b…
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Entry to resolution
Grade -0 ptsOver price · entry 99.9¢ · resolved Over · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Al Faisaly Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
Same game on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| YES Al Nassr | $11.9k | 82¢ | 1d ago |