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What this means. A wallet put $10.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 20% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.0k
BUY No @ 20¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Economy
What happened
Wallet timetowander took No (buy) for $10.0k at an average 20¢. At that price the market implied a 20% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 20¢ means
20%chance the market gave
+400American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 20¢
- Implied odds
- 20.0%
- Size
- $10.0k
- Placed
- Sep 11, 19:40 EDT
- Market close
- Sep 15, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- timetowander
- Tx
- 0xc1c3ba16…
This wallet's graded record
8/11+10.9 pts
expected 6.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -20 ptsNo price · entry 20¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.5k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.3k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $28.5k | excluded |