← Live flags
Polymarket · Other · one bet
Missed
$12.1k
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?
genesisss bought No at 96.5¢. The price gave that side a 96% chance. 12,538 shares, Oct 30, 11:50 EDT.
What this means. A wallet put $12.1k on No, at a price that gave it a 96% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
[01] Bet
What happened
Wallet genesisss bought No for $12.1k at an average 96.5¢. At that price the market implied 96% for the side they took. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed. It still counts toward the score.
This wallet is 0 of 1 on graded bets, -96.5 pts versus the price. The sample is still short. Big is not the same as right.
[02] Flag
Why it was flagged
Med. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology
Size $12.1k+0
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteFresh walletOther
What 96¢ means
96%chance the market gave
−2724American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
[04] Price
Entry to resolution
Entry to resolution
Grade -96 ptsNo price · entry 96.5¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? | HIGH Yes DOWN -27.0 pts | $179.4k 24h vol |
Missed |