Overnight recap: a Counter-Strike upset and a $1.3M Kalshi tennis print

Between about 11 pm Wednesday and 9 am Thursday (Toronto time), WhaleGrader logged 200 Polymarket flags worth about $7.2M and, since 3 am, 55 Kalshi flags worth about $2.5M.

Where the Polymarket money went

• CS: FUT Esports vs Nemiga (PGL Masters Bucharest): about $534k across 18 large trades, the busiest market of the night.
• Democrats control the House after the 2026 midterms: about $428k in 5 buys of Yes at 93¢. Still Open (not settled).
• CS: Vitality vs Natus Vincere: about $340k across 13 trades.
• Likud wins the most seats in Israel's election: about $207k in 8 trades.

Called and missed

The FUT vs Nemiga match graded both ways. Four whale buys on FUT at 69–70¢, about $180k combined, were MISSED: Nemiga won. A $65k buy on Nemiga at 31¢ was CALLED. Overnight on Polymarket that's 4 called and 7 missed so far.

Kalshi

The biggest Kalshi prints were two trades of about $665k and $679k on Osaka vs Pohankova, one on each side at 56¢. We don't grade them: they landed after the market closed. On graded Kalshi flags, 2 were called and 4 missed, including three buys on Clara Vlasselaer at 93–96¢ that lost.

The report card

On the current Polymarket track record, whales were right 65.5% of the time across 145 graded flags, against 63.4% implied by their entry prices. That is an edge of about +2.1 points, and it's still a small sample with a standard error of about 3.6 points, so it's not clearly different from zero. Kalshi has only 6 graded flags so far, which is too few to read anything into.

Jargon

• Whale flag: a single trade of $10k or more, or a sharp odds move.
• Open / Called / Missed: not settled yet / the whale's side won / it lost.
• Edge: hit rate minus the hit rate the entry prices implied.

Live numbers: Live feed · Kalshi feed · Track record.