Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$29
Return on staked
+2.6%
Bets
6/11 won
Edge vs price
+7.3 pts ±14.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -6.1 pts (2/5). Newer half: +18.5 pts (4/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 25, 18:47 EDTOct 24, 11:03 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee vs. South Carolina | 55¢ | called | 12h ago |
| Spread: BYU (-7.5) | 53¢ | called | 12h ago |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | 58¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Spread: Magic (-2.5) | 51¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | 22¢ | missed | 5d ago |
| Cowboys vs. Packers | 50¢ | missed | 6d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | 57¢ | missed | 9d ago |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians | 59¢ | missed | 19d ago |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | 44¢ | called | 20d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 61¢ | called | 105d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 9¢ | missed | 182d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.