Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$174
Return on staked
+19.4%
Bets
8/9 won
Edge vs price
+15.3 pts ±14.3
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Aug 13, 20:09 EDTSep 17, 16:36 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions vs. Bills | 70¢ | called | 37d ago |
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17? | 64¢ | called | 37d ago |
| Will Elche CF win on 2026-09-15? | 95¢ | called | 39d ago |
| Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15? | 57¢ | missed | 39d ago |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs | 67¢ | called | 63d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 72¢ | called | 65d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 75¢ | called | 67d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 76¢ | called | 68d ago |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 86¢ | called | 72d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.