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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -1.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-1.9 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$72.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$67.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.74M volume · 190 trades · since Feb 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$103.8k
Open P&L · 37 positions
−$179.0k
Closed-position win rate
64%
14 closed
Wallet age · markets
242d
51 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 1 | 1.1 | -1.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $30.0k | missed |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 5.7¢ | $12.3k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 15¢ | $15.1k | missed |
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $15.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfe1c4a…