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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -14.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-14.7 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$99.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$14.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.05M volume · 28 trades · since Jan 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$13.3k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$27.6k
Closed-position win rate
100%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
273d
5 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -14.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $27.3k | missed |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 8.3¢ | $25.9k | called |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 6.7¢ | $20.2k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 20¢ | $26.3k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfc4fd6…