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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$92.6k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$44.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $427.0k volume · 320 trades · since Dec 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$44.5k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
53%
15 closed
Wallet age · markets
303d
15 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | $40.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 94.6¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfb816e…