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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did +16.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+16.9 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$44.4k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$595
Last 30 days −$4 · $634.0k volume · 485 trades · since Nov 15, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1,153
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$555
Closed-position win rate
99%
176 closed
Wallet age · markets
344d
178 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.2 | +38.8 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -27.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 95.6¢ | $11.5k | missed |
 Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW SELL Michigan Wolverines @ 73¢ | $19.7k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 82¢ | $13.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfb76fa…