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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +5.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.3 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$123.1k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$85.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.89M volume · 449 trades · since Dec 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$172.5k
Open P&L · 46 positions
−$244.1k
Closed-position win rate
67%
94 closed
Wallet age · markets
317d
139 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -11.0 pts |
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.7 | +10.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 74¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢ | $15.6k | called |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 89¢ | $11.7k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $11.8k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 51¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 36¢ | $12.5k | missed |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢ | $15.3k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf3a471…