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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -69.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-69.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$143.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$10.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.28M volume · 183 trades · since Jun 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$94.6k
Open P&L · 20 positions
−$126.4k
Closed-position win rate
59%
17 closed
Wallet age · markets
145d
36 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -69.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 60¢ | $19.9k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 38¢ | $24.9k | called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ | $13.6k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 32¢ | $16.2k | called |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 34¢ | $17.1k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $13.3k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ | $13.9k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $15.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xec3c39…