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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.4 wins, so it did +27.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +22.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+27.3 pts
Called / graded
5/6
Expected from price
3.4
Flagged volume
$281.3k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$63k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United States win on 2026-06-25? at 49¢) and the edge is +22.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 24% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 50% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 81% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$16.2k
Last 30 days −$485 · $5.34M volume · 2,877 trades · since Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.06M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$896.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
178d
1206 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 5 | 3.4 | +27.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner | LOW SELL Dplus KIA @ 99.9¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $80.0k 4.9× usual |
called |
 Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 33¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $50.0k 3.1× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 54¢ | $24.3k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 52¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $13.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY No @ 24¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $22.6k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $16.1k | called |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
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