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−$81Yes · avg 3.9¢ → 2.5¢ · $153
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did -27.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-27.5 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$94.3k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$66k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? at 40¢) and the edge is -49.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 21% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 42% · n=3
80–100¢
0% vs 90% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$31.0k
Last 30 days +$27 · $2.21M volume · 1,705 trades · since Feb 04, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$85.1k
Open P&L · 65 positions
−$115.2k
Closed-position win rate
62%
92 closed
Wallet age · markets
262d
151 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 0 | 1.8 | -58.8 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | +19.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $10.0k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 56¢ | $43.4k 3.0× usual |
missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 60¢ | $11.4k | called |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 90.3¢ | $14.7k | missed |
 Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL No @ 79¢ | $14.8k | missed |
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