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0xd459…13f9

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?−$242Yes · avg 37¢ → 34¢ · $3,010Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?−$238Yes · avg 66¢ → 19¢ · $97
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$203.7k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$11.1k
Last 30 days −$2,781 · $1.19M volume · 448 trades · since Apr 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$4,688
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$15.5k
Closed-position win rate
59%
54 closed
Wallet age · markets
544d
54 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Trump visit China by May 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $13.1k92% 168d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $40.0k0% 168d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $20.6k1% 182d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $11.4k92% 184d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $29.6k99% 190d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $50.2k
2.5× usual
93% 288d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 77¢ $19.2k23% 314d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ $19.5k78% 314d agocalled
Will Trump visit China by May 15?excluded
BUY Yes @ 92¢$13.1k
LOW 0xd459…13f9 · 168d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$40.0k
LOW 0xd459…13f9 · 168d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$20.6k
LOW 0xd459…13f9 · 182d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?called
BUY No @ 92¢$11.4k
LOW 0xd459…13f9 · 184d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$29.6k
LOW 0xd459…13f9 · 190d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 93¢$50.2k
LOW 0xd459…13f9 · 288d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 77¢$19.2k
LOW 0xd459…13f9 · 314d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 78¢$19.5k
LOW 0xd459…13f9 · 314d ago

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