OraculumNobius

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?+$2,500No · avg 93.8¢ → 96.9¢ · $79.5k Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?+$3,771No · avg 87¢ → 96.2¢ · $38.6k Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?−$15No · avg 93.7¢ → 93.5¢ · $6,545 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$24No · avg 94¢ → 94.5¢ · $4,919 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$75Yes · avg 93¢ → 91.5¢ · $4,575 Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?+$4No · avg 96.5¢ → 96.7¢ · $2,366 NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?+$29No · avg 96.5¢ → 97.9¢ · $2,091 Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?+$7No · avg 95.2¢ → 95.5¢ · $2,000

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$202.0k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$9,755

Last 30 days −$7,374 · $30.50M volume · 89,655 trades · since Dec 30, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$50.5k

Open P&L · 16 positions

+$1,497

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

663d

26732 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$40.0k	100%	129d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$24.9k	100%	143d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$49.9k 2.0× usual	100%	197d ago	excluded
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$10.6k	0%	237d ago	excluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$34.9k	100%	251d ago	excluded
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5?	LOW BUY Down @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	100%	260d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$21.7k	0%	263d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$40.0k

LOW OraculumNobius · 129d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$24.9k

LOW OraculumNobius · 143d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$49.9k

LOW OraculumNobius · 197d ago

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$10.6k

LOW OraculumNobius · 237d ago

Government shutdown on Saturday?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$34.9k

LOW OraculumNobius · 251d ago

Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5?excluded

BUY Down @ 99.8¢$20.0k

LOW OraculumNobius · 260d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$21.7k

LOW OraculumNobius · 263d ago

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