0xcd64…b1b3

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -17.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House+$473No · avg 90¢ → 92.5¢ · $17.5k Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by October 31?+$6No · avg 94¢ → 96.5¢ · $236 Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15.5B by October 31?−$0No · avg 99¢ → 98.9¢ · $60 StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?−$0No · avg 98.8¢ → 98.7¢ · $10

Price-adjusted edge

-17.7 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.2

Flagged volume

$102.0k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±38.2 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$8,355

Last 30 days +$730 · $1.14M volume · 798 trades · since Nov 24, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$7,875

Open P&L · 4 positions

+$479

Closed-position win rate

98%

189 closed

Wallet age · markets

334d

193 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.2	-17.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$14.1k	98%	104d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 82¢	$11.0k	18%	104d ago	missed
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢	$13.1k	2%	108d ago	excluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$13.1k	98%	109d ago	excluded
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$50.7k 3.9× usual	100%	111d ago	excluded

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 98.1¢$14.1k

LOW 0xcd64…b1b3 · 104d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL No @ 82¢$11.0k

LOW 0xcd64…b1b3 · 104d ago

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 97.7¢$13.1k

LOW 0xcd64…b1b3 · 108d ago

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 97.8¢$13.1k

LOW 0xcd64…b1b3 · 109d ago

Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$50.7k

LOW 0xcd64…b1b3 · 111d ago

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