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+$50No · avg 89¢ → 94¢ · $943+$57Yes · avg 1.4¢ → 3.7¢ · $92+$2No · avg 80¢ → 97.2¢ · $12
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$133.3k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$12.9k
Last 30 days +$87 · $2.46M volume · 476 trades · since Apr 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$14.1k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$1,209
Closed-position win rate
82%
22 closed
Wallet age · markets
205d
22 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $19.7k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 70¢ | $21.5k | missed |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $10.9k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $46.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW SELL No @ 74¢ | $19.3k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 58¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xcaf194…