← Wallets
−$11.5kYes · avg 20¢ → 17¢ · $56.7k+$2,566Yes · avg 12¢ → 13¢ · $55.4k−$4Yes · avg 21¢ → 20¢ · $141−$1Yes · avg 31¢ → 30¢ · $22
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 6.1 wins, so it did +10.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +3.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+10.7 pts
Called / graded
7/8
Expected from price
6.1
Flagged volume
$707.6k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$23k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? at 36¢) and the edge is +3.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 37% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1,778
Last 30 days −$12.4k · $6.75M volume · 1,989 trades · since Jul 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$27.6k
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$19.2k
Closed-position win rate
54%
39 closed
Wallet age · markets
474d
43 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 6 | 6 | 5.4 | +9.8 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | +13.4 pts |
History
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