Arkgetsu

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?+$1,419No · avg 55¢ → 64¢ · $10.0k Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?+$544No · avg 77¢ → 84¢ · $6,566 Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?+$611No · avg 26¢ → 30¢ · $5,559 Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?−$46No · avg 89¢ → 88¢ · $5,099 Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch?+$1No · avg 91¢ → 97.7¢ · $17

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$13.0k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$7,841

Last 30 days +$160 · $412.4k volume · 1,035 trades · since Jul 31, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$6,821

Open P&L · 6 positions

+$2,529

Closed-position win rate

82%

94 closed

Wallet age · markets

815d

99 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result	Open on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$13.0k	0%	220d ago	excluded

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?excluded

SELL No @ 99.7¢$13.0k

LOW Arkgetsu · 220d ago

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