0xb96d…4179

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -37.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-37.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.4

Flagged volume

$198.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$35.3k

Last 30 days +$0 · $2.25M volume · 246 trades · since Jan 08, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$33.3k

Open P&L · 5 positions

−$2,001

Closed-position win rate

91%

80 closed

Wallet age · markets

—

101 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	0	0.4	-37.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢	$12.9k	37%	44d ago	missed
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev	LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 93.2¢	$33.8k	93%	268d ago	excluded
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina	LOW BUY Rybakina @ 98.8¢	$33.4k	99%	268d ago	excluded
Warriors vs. Jazz	LOW BUY Warriors @ 96.7¢	$30.7k	97%	269d ago	excluded
Grizzlies vs. Rockets	LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢	$28.6k	0%	271d ago	excluded
Grizzlies vs. Rockets	LOW BUY Rockets @ 99.7¢	$28.6k	100%	271d ago	excluded
Nets vs. Clippers	LOW BUY Clippers @ 99.6¢	$16.4k	100%	272d ago	excluded
Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik Sinner	LOW BUY Sinner @ 93.3¢	$14.1k	93%	274d ago	excluded

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed

BUY Yes @ 37¢$12.9k

LOW 0xb96d…4179 · 44d ago

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverevexcluded

BUY Alcaraz @ 93.2¢$33.8k

LOW 0xb96d…4179 · 268d ago

Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakinaexcluded

BUY Rybakina @ 98.8¢$33.4k

LOW 0xb96d…4179 · 268d ago

Warriors vs. Jazzexcluded

BUY Warriors @ 96.7¢$30.7k

LOW 0xb96d…4179 · 269d ago

Grizzlies vs. Rocketsexcluded

SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢$28.6k

LOW 0xb96d…4179 · 271d ago

Grizzlies vs. Rocketsexcluded

BUY Rockets @ 99.7¢$28.6k

LOW 0xb96d…4179 · 271d ago

Nets vs. Clippersexcluded

BUY Clippers @ 99.6¢$16.4k

LOW 0xb96d…4179 · 272d ago

Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik Sinnerexcluded

BUY Sinner @ 93.3¢$14.1k

LOW 0xb96d…4179 · 274d ago

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