TimRob

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?+$4,285Yes · avg 29¢ → 67¢ · $7,570 Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?−$35No · avg 96.3¢ → 95.6¢ · $4,933 Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?+$93No · avg 95¢ → 96.9¢ · $4,828 Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?+$338Yes · avg 26¢ → 29¢ · $3,288 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?−$88Yes · avg 6¢ → 3.8¢ · $147 Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$23Yes · avg 2.3¢ → 2.8¢ · $138 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?−$616Yes · avg 11¢ → 1.6¢ · $105

Price-adjusted edge

+3.7 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$68.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$25.4k

Last 30 days +$1,158 · $6.80M volume · 16,273 trades · since Jan 27, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$74.5k

Open P&L · 8 positions

+$3,981

Closed-position win rate

78%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

270d

502 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	1.0	+3.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$25.0k	100%	108d ago	excluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$10.3k	98%	206d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$22.9k	99%	208d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢	$10.4k	96%	226d ago	called

Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$25.0k

LOW TimRob · 108d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?excluded

BUY No @ 97.8¢$10.3k

LOW TimRob · 206d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$22.9k

LOW TimRob · 208d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?called

BUY No @ 96.3¢$10.4k

LOW TimRob · 226d ago

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