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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +49.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+49.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$135.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2,635
Last 30 days +$0 · $723.3k volume · 713 trades · since Sep 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2,635
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
53%
15 closed
Wallet age · markets
402d
15 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | +49.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $12.5k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 52¢ | $12.6k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 90.2¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 94¢ | $18.7k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.9¢ | $19.0k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 86¢ | $14.2k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $18.2k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 85¢ | $18.2k | missed |
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