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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -22.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-22.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$67.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±41.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$9,392
Last 30 days +$744 · $7.38M volume · 11,126 trades · since Sep 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$64.4k
Open P&L · 23 positions
−$54.6k
Closed-position win rate
72%
379 closed
Wallet age · markets
400d
372 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -22.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Will Trump visit China by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $27.7k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 78¢ | $13.1k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa9e64c…