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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +32.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+32.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$461.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$712.9k
Last 30 days −$42.5k · $19.17M volume · 21,951 trades · since Jul 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$280.1k
Open P&L · 51 positions
−$995.1k
Closed-position win rate
60%
228 closed
Wallet age · markets
824d
262 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +32.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Grizzlies vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 60¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | LOW BUY Jazz @ 50¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
 Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 75¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | LOW BUY Broncos @ 40¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Cowboys @ 47¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 68¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | LOW BUY Bengals @ 56¢ | $38.6k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Bears @ 54¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Raiders vs. Saints | MED BUY Raiders @ 83¢ | $35.7k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers | LOW BUY Vikings @ 68¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 61¢ | $41.5k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | MED BUY No @ 27¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY No @ 28¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW SELL No @ 32¢ | $32.0k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $139.9k 9.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 62¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa8a532…