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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -57.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-57.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$102.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$8,814
Last 30 days +$1,549 · $3.97M volume · 5,060 trades · since Apr 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$8,814
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
44%
206 closed
Wallet age · markets
190d
231 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.1 | -57.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | LOW SELL No @ 93.5¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | LOW BUY No @ 90.3¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $10.0k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $10.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 41¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $19.9k | missed |
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