PoppingChairman

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -57.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Anthropic IPO before 2027?+$116Yes · avg 76¢ → 79¢ · $3,346 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+$115No · avg 90.9¢ → 97.8¢ · $1,637 US strike on Cuba by December 31?+$130No · avg 47¢ → 91.5¢ · $269 OpenAI IPO before 2027?−$3,287Yes · avg 74¢ → 2.9¢ · $134 Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?−$788Yes · avg 71¢ → 3.5¢ · $40

Price-adjusted edge

-57.3 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

2.7

Flagged volume

$76.0k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$23.1k

Last 30 days −$199 · $1.26M volume · 832 trades · since Dec 18, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$34.0k

Open P&L · 10 positions

−$56.9k

Closed-position win rate

76%

54 closed

Wallet age · markets

310d

61 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Crypto	1	1	0.9	+8.0 pts
Other	2	0	1.8	-89.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$27.1k	88%	133d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$18.4k	92%	137d ago	missed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$10.5k	92%	152d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	100%	298d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed

BUY No @ 88¢$27.1k

LOW PoppingChairman · 133d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed

BUY No @ 92¢$18.4k

LOW PoppingChairman · 137d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 92¢$10.5k

LOW PoppingChairman · 152d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$20.0k

LOW PoppingChairman · 298d ago

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