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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -45.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-45.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$252.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$540.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.69M volume · 3,835 trades · since Apr 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$540.2k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
38%
126 closed
Wallet age · markets
204d
122 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -45.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.3¢ | $34.3k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.4¢ | $29.5k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97.4¢ | $107.8k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
 Wild vs. Red Wings | LOW BUY Red Wings @ 45¢ | $12.4k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x95de70…