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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -40.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-40.9 pts
Called / graded
0/4
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$691.2k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$670.2k
Last 30 days −$5,135 · $32.19M volume · 12,792 trades · since Oct 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.65M
Open P&L · 392 positions
−$2.35M
Closed-position win rate
85%
117 closed
Wallet age · markets
367d
604 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 0 | 1.6 | -40.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 55¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $31.8k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL Yes @ 42¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED SELL Yes @ 92.4¢ | $35.8k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $60.0k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97.4¢ | $32.5k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $67.0k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL Yes @ 43¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | LOW BUY Netherlands @ 52¢ | $15.8k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | MED SELL Yes @ 91.1¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | HIGH SELL Knicks @ 77¢ | $108.0k 5.8× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 48¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Knicks @ 95¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 37¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 37¢ | $30.6k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 37¢ | $18.5k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 32¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Spurs @ 98¢ | $25.3k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Spurs @ 65¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 98¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
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