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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +1.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.0 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$116.0k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$100.9k
Last 30 days −$0 · $2.30M volume · 108 trades · since Mar 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$130.4k
Open P&L · 59 positions
−$205.5k
Closed-position win rate
86%
21 closed
Wallet age · markets
226d
87 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -7.0 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | +9.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $23.0k | called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 55¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 56¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium? | LOW SELL Yes @ 83¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 7¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $20.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x94a884…