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NordhavenCap

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?+$1No · avg 85¢ → 90¢ · $14
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$171.8k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$298.6k
Last 30 days +$84.5k · $5.56M volume · 12,390 trades · since Jul 03, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$672.7k
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$176.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
113d
4408 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY Spain @ 70¢ $15.8k70% 96d agoexcluded
Will France win on 2026-07-18?LOW SELL No @ 87¢ $13.8k13% 97d agoexcluded
France vs. England: Team to WinMED BUY England @ 81¢ $38.2k
2.7× usual
81% 97d agoexcluded
France vs. England: Team to WinMED SELL England @ 91.1¢ $28.2k
2.0× usual
9% 97d agoexcluded
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceLOW SELL Argentina @ 56¢ $12.1k44% 100d agoexcluded
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY Argentina @ 68¢ $15.8k68% 104d agoexcluded
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢ $14.2k19% 105d agoexcluded
Will France win on 2026-07-09?LOW SELL Yes @ 63¢ $11.6k37% 106d agoexcluded
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceLOW SELL Argentina @ 69¢ $10.9k31% 108d agoexcluded
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY Argentina @ 69¢ $11.3k69% 108d agoexcluded

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