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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -37.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-37.0 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$33.8k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$21.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $226.0k volume · 78 trades · since Apr 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$3,472
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$1,309
Closed-position win rate
94%
18 closed
Wallet age · markets
184d
21 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 2.1 | -37.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $12.3k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $11.1k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x911dba…