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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +19.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+19.5 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$64.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±39.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$11.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.38M volume · 2,027 trades · since Nov 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$566.1k
Open P&L · 36 positions
−$578.0k
Closed-position win rate
84%
38 closed
Wallet age · markets
701d
69 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +19.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | MED BUY No @ 80¢ | $25.8k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $13.2k | called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8d61e7…