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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.1 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$394.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$300.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.03M volume · 28 trades · since Dec 15, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$300.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
44%
18 closed
Wallet age · markets
314d
17 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 87¢ | $301.9k 20.0× usual |
excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 83¢ | $42.4k 2.8× usual |
called |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $19.9k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ | $10.2k | missed |
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