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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$89.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$14.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.02M volume · 2,092 trades · since Mar 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$14.3k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
50%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
223d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | MED SELL Yes @ 71¢ | $17.3k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | MED SELL Yes @ 71¢ | $10.7k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | MED SELL Yes @ 80¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $22.8k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 94¢ | $16.9k | called |
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