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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.1 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$544.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$59.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.86M volume · 1,484 trades · since Jan 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$59.9k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
98%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
283d
47 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $72.6k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $72.4k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $59.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $73.0k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $58.2k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $47.4k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
 Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $49.3k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $19.8k | called |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
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