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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -18.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-18.6 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$173.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$62.3k
Last 30 days −$0 · $2.18M volume · 2,641 trades · since Mar 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$31.1k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$98.1k
Closed-position win rate
65%
115 closed
Wallet age · markets
215d
120 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | +12.0 pts |
| Crypto | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -79.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $16.2k | missed |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢ | $16.4k | called |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99¢ | $30.7k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 95¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ | $51.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | LOW BUY No @ 94.8¢ | $15.8k | called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $10.4k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x82ff82…