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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -34.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-34.3 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$154.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$10.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.51M volume · 475 trades · since Jan 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$10.4k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
32%
65 closed
Wallet age · markets
273d
65 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -34.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | LOW SELL Yes @ 42¢ | $36.5k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | LOW BUY Yes @ 34¢ | $18.0k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | LOW BUY Yes @ 34¢ | $18.0k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $71.8k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8150e3…