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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -17.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.8 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$110.3k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$53.2k
Last 30 days −$5,504 · $5.32M volume · 1,503 trades · since Jun 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$23.7k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$27.5k
Closed-position win rate
59%
181 closed
Wallet age · markets
131d
182 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.7 | -17.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 12¢ | $11.1k | called |
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $18.8k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $10.1k | called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 12¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $10.2k | called |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 12¢ | $10.0k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $14.8k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $14.7k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x7efe92…